BY ED GRUMBINE
Before coming to work at the Grand Canyon Trust as manager of our conservation and grazing activities on the North Rim Ranches—850,000 acres of public lands north of the Grand Canyon—I was certain of three things about climate change and ranching. First, since I had been living in Asia and studying how pastoralists across the Himalaya adapt to climate change, I knew: yaks are grazing animals too. Second, I understood that no matter how big the landscape—a huge swath of the North Rim or the world’s tallest mountains—the people you partner with determine success or failure. And third, while a strong vision sets the stage for change, on-the-ground leadership makes it happen.
But when it comes to our partners, from the Jones family, who runs a small herd of cattle on these public lands, to the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management, who oversee the grazing permits, to the scientists studying everything from the movements of mountain lions and mule deer to ways to stop the spread of cheatgrass and the devastating wildfires it feeds, I know I want to rely on folks who are willing to think ahead of the curve. And because the Trust decided years ago to advocate for the health of the land using our unique position as a conservation organization and a grazing permittee, I am acutely aware that when it comes to our future climate and how people will adapt to change, our leadership remains essential.
Average temperatures are projected to rise by one to four degrees Fahrenheit by 2050, with even greater increases after that. If you’ve been following international climate change discussions, you will remember the current consensus that an average temperature increase of much more than three degrees Fahrenheit will trigger significant disruptions to Earth’s natural systems.
On the Colorado Plateau, these higher temperatures will increase evaporation and reduce snowpack, making droughts worse. Projections of future regional rainfall are less certain. But as people working on the land know, precipitation is about timing, not just total amount. Declines in snowmelt and runoff will reduce river flows and soil moisture, leading to more stresses on humans and the land.
And as temperature, precipitation, and hydrology head toward some new normal, plants and animals will move on to find the habitat they need. By mid-century and beyond, this will likely lead to wholesale shifts in plant communities we have come to take for granted: pinyon-juniper woodlands are projected to become shrublands and ponderosa pine and spruce-fir communities may be replaced by drier forests. And the fire season, already lengthened by several weeks, will grow even longer, leading to more fires and larger burned areas.
What can we do? People often talk about reducing the amount of carbon humans emit, but on the lands where we ranch, our carbon footprint is small. Our best hope is to adapt: to plan for and then act to minimize the negative consequences of changing conditions by staying ahead of the curve of change and being flexible when “normal” climatic conditions evolve into something new.
The good news is that since the Trust purchased the grazing permits for the North Rim Ranches 10 years ago, we have successfully used our position as both a conservation advocacy organization and a livestock grazing permittee to promote climate-friendly management.
Three accomplishments stand out. In partnership with the Jones family, who has grazed cattle on the north rim of the Grand Canyon for three generations, and the agencies, we have managed livestock to support healthy ecosystems. Since 2005, we have reduced the herd grazing on these public lands from several thousand to some 600 animals today, about half the number of cows our Forest Service permit allows and a quarter of our Bureau of Land Management permit maximum. We have embraced grazing rotations that, in addition to fewer cattle, have altered the times and locations where livestock can graze in certain pastures to give grasses time to recover and reduce erosion.
Supported by agency and research partners and powered by dedicated volunteers, we have identified and restored sensitive areas including springs, streamsides along the Paria River, and the remains of native grasslands that once covered large swaths of the rim before cattle were introduced. Much of this on-the-ground work has been done through the Trust’s Volunteer Program. In 2015 alone, volunteers donated nearly 4,000 hours to stewardship projects on the ranches. As a result, these important ecosystems are more resilient to future changes on the land.
Beyond grazing and restoration work, the Trust has convinced our partners of the benefits of inclusive, science-based management. With our leadership of the North Rim Ranches Research and Stewardship Partnership, a working group of major federal, state, and academic players, if we don’t know the answer to a management question, we use science to find one. This partnership has sponsored a wealth of cheatgrass research to understand how to control its spread. We have delved deeply into the best ways to use native perennial grasses to restore arid lands in the House Rock Valley. We have also completed many wildlife studies, from baseline surveys to determine how many bird and bat species call these lands home, to mapping travel corridors which must be maintained for wide-ranging species like deer and mountain lions.
Current research projects include restoring springs in Vermilion Cliffs National Monument, using camera trapping to better understand wildlife diversity, densities, and movements across the Kaibab Plateau, and discovering which kinds of trees might be better adapted to new climate conditions.
Building a coalition of partners has not always been easy, but 10 years of hard work has produced healthier lands, a stronger commitment to science, and greater trust in working together. And a decade of light-on-theland grazing, successful restoration, and collaborative science have bought us time to prepare for what comes next.
No one knows. But conservation-first management has given us experience in how to boost land health on the North Rim, and our partners have seen this too. The Forest Service has added climate change concerns into the North Rim Ranches’ new allotment management plan, using our successes to set grazing rules for the next 10 years. And Justun Jones, who has worked on this land since he was seven years old, is willing to run a close-to-the-bone ranching operation because it allows him to live in the place he loves while he partners with us to help the land heal and adapt for the future. As he told me recently over coffee, “we have a life-long operation, not a five-year operation.”
Taking the long-term view is a good place to begin tackling the impacts of climate change. To discover more about where our potential vulnerabilities lie across the North Rim lands, the Trust has just completed a climate adaptation plan that will guide us into an uncertain future.
The view from Fence Point, on the North Rim Ranches.
In arid lands, the place to start is water. No one knows how much rainfall is in store for the Colorado Plateau. But on the ranches, one potential pinch point for water is in the low elevation winter grasslands of the House Rock Valley. The House Rock Valley is famous for its expansive views of redrock cliffs, but there are few springs and no surface waters. In House Rock, our adaptation plan prioritizes restoring and monitoring springs. In fact, we will be evaluating waters all across the ranches to determine what we can do to keep them flowing for wildlife and livestock in drier years to come.
The new climate adaptation plan also spotlights the risk of unnaturally severe wildfires and the spread of invasive species. After a fire, the Forest Service closes grazing across the burn for three years. If cheatgrass moves in, grazing might be halted for much longer. Our ranching partner, Justun, is particularly concerned about this. “If climate change ramps up the fire cycle, we’ll be impacted a lot on the Kaibab,” he says.
On-the-ground flexibility based on paying attention to what works and what doesn’t work on the land is a key outcome of the Trust’s longterm investment in partnerships. But partners don’t always see eye-to-eye. Despite recent dry conditions on the ranches, Justun believes we should run more cows, because, in his view, “our small numbers across a large landscape mean that we’ve never hit any threshold that tells us ‘OK, stop, that’s too many cows for these conditions.’” A partner who knows the land can provide essential information about weather, springs, fences, and Forest Service permitting requirements, but may overlook conservation goals that extend beyond ranching.
One afternoon when we were out in the forest inspecting a broken water valve on the Little Mountain stock tank, Justun reminded me that if the Trust worked alone, things would have gone differently. “With both partners in the mix, we’ve been able to give each other trouble in a constructive way,” he said, laughing. This good kind of trouble—challenging every partner to think smarter and more creatively—is what adaptive behavior is all about.
We have a fresh set of ideas from the climate adaptation plan. We have access to the best science. Our agency partners are ready to get on board. And, we have Justun, a rancher who wants to solve problems collaboratively for the well-being of his family and the health of the land.
I haven’t seen yaks on the North Rim, but I know good partners when I see them.
Ed Grumbine directs the Trust’s Land Programs. Recently, he lived in China as a senior international scholar for the Chinese Academy of Sciences focusing on protected area and water issues.
"With both partners in the mix, we've been able to give each other trouble in a constructive way."
